Luck Probability in Life
Hi folks!
Most of us have likely had an experience where we were tight to pick just one option from among the best ones available to us. Sometimes when it appears in front of me, it's just like a Gacha.
"Umm, what is it again? Gacha?"
Oh, come on, really?
Gacha is like a capsule toy vending machine where the reward has its own mechanisms and tiers, and it progressively depends on the level we're currently at. This game system, however, is mostly set by the law of probability.
No matter if we pick one of 3 boxes, the reward is purely random, and it only has chances:
1 gold box for the best item which is the prestigious one — imagine finding a kilogram of gold inside it.
1 diamond box for a good item — typically usable or consumables one. such as we will get a Rp500K free starbucks voucher
1 copper box for common/useless items — usually invaluable like imagine we might obtain a baby powder inside this box
We are only relying on our luck. You might assume that your chances of securing a gold box is 1 in 3 or 1/3 (one over three). However, according to my experience (disclaimer) as private community game developer, the truth is: It's not guaranteed and not that simple.
(Indo: Kita nggak segampang itu bisa dapet gold box dalam 1 game, karena nilai kemungkinan keluarnya bukan 1/3. Nyatanya game developer itu biasanya bikin kita lebih susah untuk dapet 1 gold box, bahkan dalam 3x percobaan belum tentu bisa dapet 1 gold, karena dibuat nilai prob keluarnya cuma 1/1000 dalam satu kali nge gacha, jadi per 1x coba ya possibilitynya cuma 1/1000 gold box, kalo 3x percobaan ya artinya prob cuma 3/1000)
I will illustrate this further shortly. Supposed that:
1 gold box = I will set it as 1 return probability
1 diamond box = I will set it as 250 return probability
1 copper box = I will set it as 750 return probability
If we run the game 1000 times, we will have:
1 gold box ✅
250 diamond boxes ☑️
750 copper boxes ✔️
So scary, right? Imagine, you need to spend your time and money to play 1000x game to get 1 gold box guarantee.
The Gacha-based system game is controllable, It's simply a matter of stochastic probability kind of stuff and adds some psychological thing (like intermittent reward) to make it addictive. And mostly, the number of chances are not publicly shared, that is why, gacha is completely a blind game. However, people love it, still, I don't know why 😹
(This article illustrates the addictiveness very well: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2017/sep/28/hooked-how-pokies-are-designed-to-be-addictive)
Let's stop here, the math kinds of stuff made my head spin around like a slot machine hahah.
(Who knows, I might just consider a career change and become a top-notch slot machine dealer in Las Vegas or online Bandar slot Zeus server Singapore gacor link aku bang. uhm.)
ANYWAY, It is also mirroring our life, particularly my life seriously, where I often find multiple choices that impact my life journey, just like a gacha.
I don't even know whether it will lead me to the best reward or only to get a baby powder. Why does it sound materialistic 😃
When I was in high school, I wanted to be a Taekwondo athlete, I have almost joined an Indonesian taekwondo national team in Ragunan, Jakarta. It's like I am ready to kick some serious butt and bring home gold medals from the International championship. But guess what? Life had other plans for me. As soon as I stepped into the world of Taekwondo, I discovered there was more than one path to success.
First option: Cheerleading
Taekwondo athlete —kyorugi. I trained like crazy, day in and day out, perfecting my kicks and dodges or little punches, participating in taekwondo competitions, festivals, pelatkot (kota), pelatda (daerah). Some only in PARTICIPATING, not win all of them 😩 I couldn't help but notice there were these pesky or maniac athletes who were way faster and stronger than me naturally. It's like they had rockets and springs in their feet since they were a kid, probably since they were 5 years old, meanwhile, I discovered taekwondo when I was in 7th-grade junior high school.
I have also noticed that there is something wrong with my hamstring, I got a leg injury since the last practice for high school taekwondo. I calmed down my nerves and refused the registration, even though they knew I was eligible, but It was just a sad moment. At that time, I thought I would have a shorter time to live in this sport for being an athlete. So what was my second option? Cheerleading?
Hey, those high kicks and jumps are almost like Taekwondo, right? Plus, I get to wear a short skirt and cute uniform, and dance and jump and splitting my leg. And I would probably die instantly. The end. (Just kidding)
Second option: The pivot to Engineering
College. I thought, "Okay, maybe I'm not destined for Taekwondo greatness, but college will be my ticket to success, won't it?" I poured my heart into studying and acing exams in high school. During college admissions, I laid down a wild card —a collection of taekwondo certificates, and guess what, It paid off. I got the "golden ticket" to Computer Engineering at Universitas Indonesia, Depok. I just realised that taekwondo brought me a ticket to college. I realised that my past wasn't left behind, it journeyed with me, shaping me, and guiding me to this academic life. Taekwondo may have been my first love, but it guided me to my destiny —Engineering.
I remember It was my 3rd year at college, I had a similar moment. I was faced with several choices, which proved to be challenging as I had to make a difficult decision in a short amount of time. The first option is to go to Taiwan to be an intern researcher at NTUST (National Taiwan University of Science and Technology) ...or the second option to join my professor's research for building the first Indonesian Cloud Conference Management System.
The tradeoff to pick the first option is international exposure and the second option is to have an experience in making cloud-based sites. Even though those boxes are promising, I had chosen the second option, and it turns out I have made it! I built this site with my own heart for 2 years straight, and it led me to be an inventor among 6 inventors (who are my professors, all of them, sound scary. One Undergraduate student vs. five professors?) since we applied for a copyright certificate which was published by the Ministry of Law and Human Rights. Many international conferences use this platform, I can't even believe it bjir. And it has impacted my career journey enormously until today when this post is being published.
I realised that I had chosen the gold box of gacha. And it was unexpected before, never thought about this path. Weird.
Luck is a thing for life?
Imagine, 7 Billion people on this planet. How many people will have a chance to get a prosperous life? Probably less than 1%.
It's just like an MMORPG game, we have to know about the random attribute called luck at every player's stat. Luck represents chances. For instance, Chances of damage or hit will be randomly generated by the game engine will not be predicted easily while attacking the Boss HP or Physical Armor or Defense. Then you will be the top ten strongest warriors at that season for high damage contributions. But does it will constantly happen throughout all seasons? Unfortunately No.
Instead, if we increase the number of basic attributes, little by little, we will pretty much increase the overall number of damage hit, it will conclude the game. Even more accurate and being the top-notch warrior all the time, all the seasons. Does it will last longer for next and future seasons? Yes. We have a strength that is come naturally.
This post is too long and too abstract, I guess (I hope you understand my absurd write-up style).
In the end, life is a lot like a MMORPG game, life is full of trade-offs. With 7 billion people in the world, only a few might get lucky and land the jackpot. However, just as any experienced gamer knows, we can't solely rely on luck. Luck is expensive. We have to work on building our skills bit by bit, which is much more reliable and enduring. Rather than just hoping for that one big break, we should focus our energies on continuous growth and improvement. The fun part—this dedication and commitment to ourselves can sometimes lead to unexpected surprises, just like stumbling upon a hidden treasure in a game. And isn’t this exactly what makes us a winner in the ultimate game called "life"?
Thanks for your visit! Cheers~
